Here’s an easy easy guide on China’s position on the issues at hand.

I’ve found out that China’s interests are different and a lot more complicated than in the case of Darfur, where she threatened to block resolutions against the government because of her energetic interests. This certainly slowed down processes. Would China put her own interests before the human rights of people again? Like I said, now it’s more complex.

China is Burma’s main trading partner, so western powers are super faithful that she will have enough influence to make Burma’s Junta’s position change. But there seem to be lots of reasons why China wouldn’t. (in random order)

1) Track record. In January, China blocked a Security Council resolution for Burma to improve its human rights record. She’s helped veto sanctions against the regime in the past, too. (Source)

2) Ideology. If China agrees with the monks protesting for democracy, that would mean they agree with democracy. So why is it not the right path for China? (Which, let’s remember, is technically communist) (Source)

3) Wants to keep good relations with Burma. Of course is trade is good for Burma, it’s also good for China. She has strategic interests, particularly of energy and raw materials, and  including access to the Indian Ocean. (Source)

4) Might not work anyway. Who said China’s word was law? So far her calls for restraint are falling on deaf ears. As the Economist puts it, “Myanmar is far from a client state” (Source)

Like in every debate, there’s the “for” reasons, too.

1) Reputation. Oh yes. China cares about this. Particularly with the 2008 Beijing Olympics fast approaching. They don’t want to side with those that “look bad”. (Source)

2) Congress is a-coming. The congress is a body which meets every 5 years, in which members are reshuffled and policies for the next 5 years are laid out.  Rival factions are competing more than ever. The unrest is bad bad bad. (Source)

3) Regional stability. As a regional power, if, who knows, war broke out, it would be bad for China. It’s all way too close. (Source)

As you can see, I’ve done my research. I’ve been keeping an eye out for this topic since the very start, and my attitudes for China have changed the more information I read. It’s all super complex, and it truly makes me wonder, what will China do?

“I think they just wish the whole thing would go away,” says Russell Leigh Moses, a China scholar at the Beijing Center, a private think tank. Yeah, I think so too.  There’s lots of things at stake. Reputation against lives. Doing the right thing versus dollars.

Will it choose to use its influence and choose the option of democracy? Does this open a Pandora box too big for China to handle? Will it choose to be, once again, the accomplice of “the bad guy”? Will it decide to do what’s best for their own country? Or will she be unable to resist the international outcry in favour of Burma and the many petitions being signed? 

So far, it’s called Burma for restraint, but nothing else. I bet Hu Jintao has lost a few nights’ sleep on this one. In this big international chess board, we’ll just have to wait for China to make her move.

And what do I think? I think there’s an information overdose. At first, I thought China was doing the wrong thing. Every time I know more and read more, the complexity of the situation becomes more overwhelming. It takes analysis to understand the information. If you read too much, too many opinions, all at once, it can be confusing. So then you need to think, you need analysis.

I believe human rights and lives are extremely important, but now that I also understand the many factors going on, and that China’s decision will be dependent of so many things, it’s really hard to even try to make a prediction. I just hope she’ll do what’s right and use her influence for good.